The armchair experts who boldly state the final four of the Mid South East Football League is already decided have not taken into account the vagaries of football in the final two rounds.
To be sure, current form suggests the major round will be contested by likely minor premiers Hatherleigh as well as second-placed Robe, Port MacDonnell (third) and reigning premiers Kalangadoo (fourth).
Port MacDonnell is 99% locked into third place but there are two possible changes.
One is for Robe to leapfrog Hatherleigh and take the minor premiership which is chiefly of academic interest.
The other is for Kalangadoo to drop to fifth and be overtaken by “September Specialists” Mount Burr.
For this to occur, the Mozzies have to achieve sizeable wins over Tantanoola (home) and Glencoe (away) – and this is achievable.
Kalangadoo has the bye on Saturday and then it hosts Nangwarry to complete the minor round.
A win is likely but the Saints would dearly love to build a foundation for 2025 with a win over their near neighbours.
There are many in the Nangwarry camp who would like to end Kalangadoo’s season in an untimely fashion given certain player movement matters of several seasons ago.
After several losses to begin their premiership defence, the Magpies have since run hot and cold.
The recovery from injury of coach Al Lyon and ace forward Michael Krieger has boosted the playing stocks of the black and whites.
Nevertheless, if they are to play again at Nangwarry in the first semi-final on the last day of August, a few matters have to fall into place.
Perhaps Kalangadoo should use their bye on Saturday to get to Can Hill at Mick and Jean Walker Oval at Mount Burr to cheer the Tantanoola Tigers to victory and ensure fourth spot is theirs.
Mount Burr v Tantanoola
Does Mount Burr have the wherewithal to reverse a two-game losing sequence and defeat Tantanoola at home by around 25 goals?
The Tigers have also lost in rounds 15 and 16 but are unlikely to succumb by the 150-point margin needed by the Mozzies to draw level on percentage terms with the Magpies.
After 16 rounds, Kalangadoo enjoys a 3% buffer over Mount Burr: that is 56.88% to 53.73%.
I have worked the figures and found the home team would roughly need a scoreline of 25.20 (170) to 3.2 (20) to tip Kalangadoo out of fourth spot.
The Mozzies have an ace forward in Jack Gregory who is always keen to do well against his home club.
The vice-captain and multiple league goal-kicking trophy winner has been bothered by a broken finger for much of 2024.
He has still managed to boot 42 goals in 13 matches and he is within sight of a fourth league goal kicking trophy.
This contest is currently being led by Glencoe’s Alex Hentschke with 50 goals.
Mount Burr has the league’s best defenders in the Wallis brothers and evergreen 40-year-old Peter Guyett.
Tantanoola lacks firepower in attack and this is reflected on the scoreboard.
However, there is quality aplenty in Cade Kelly, the Hatt brothers and co-captain Brandon Pitts.
Perhaps the Mozzies will win by five goals and not the 25 needed to put pressure on the Magpies.
Hatherleigh v Robe
Some may regard this as the match of the round and this is usually the case when top meets second.
However, only pride and bragging rights are at stake when Hatherleigh hosts Robe.
The Roosters could overtake the Eagles in the last two home and away games and add the minor premiership to their 2024 booty.
The seasiders were not at their best in round 16 at home to Mount Burr and it took two fine last-quarter goals by coach Nathan Brown to secure the premiership points.
Conditions were far from ideal at the Robe Oval with fog about for much of the day.
The floodlights were turned on during the Senior Colts contest and remained on until A Grade ended around 4.45pm.
Hatherleigh has often had trouble countering Zac Deane but he looks set to miss another game on account of injury.
Robe players can go full bore in this contest as they have a bye in round 18.
They have a 21-day break before the second semi final against the Eagles on their home ground.
Hatherleigh has great depth and is well-placed to win.
Nangwarry v Kongorong
It would take a remarkable turn of events for Kongorong to avoid consecutive wooden spoons.
Mind you, the Hawks remain in good heart as witnessed by their successful sponsors’ day and 2004 B Grade premiership reunion at home in round 16.
The club has decided on its new coach and an announcement is imminent.
Nangwarry was far from disgraced at Glencoe on Saturday and should win.
Port MacDonnell v Glencoe
This is the only round 17 match where the result will not alter any team rankings.
Port MacDonnell does not want to get any injuries or suspensions but nor does it want to lower its colours to Glencoe.
Playmaker Zacc Cocks returns for the visitors and the team will be looking to “feed” Alex Hentschke in a bid for him to win the MSEFL goalkicking trophy.
